Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,528,568$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,551,243.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,551,243.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $91,921$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(7.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,286.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(93,286.0\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,147,255$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $80,493$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(5.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,020.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(85,020.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,028$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(284 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,610.2}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,610.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,396$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,867$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(847 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,633.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,633.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $281$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(21.9 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{299.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(299.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,392$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $54,346$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,954.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 58.4)}}\) (asimptote \(91,954.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,666$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(174 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,549.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,549.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,355$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,223$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(832 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,447.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 51.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,447.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $441$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(61.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{446.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(446.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,169$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,955$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(65.9 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,108.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 77.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,108.6\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $147$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(12.9 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(228.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,459$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,887$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(306 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,897.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 29.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,897.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $79$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(12.8 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(82.5\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $270$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,498$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(32.2 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,424.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 71.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,424.0\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(2.09 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $966$ on 2020-05-19
